A Generation Lost? It Depends On Who You Listen To...

Kurt Hanson’s RAIN Newsletter under the story header “A GENERATION LOST”, reports Gerson Lehrman Group advisor Alan Albarran fears that radio has lost a generation of listeners, many of whom migrated to more “forward” media like personalizable online radio. And with them, radio’s lost selling opportunities.
“The demographic… 20-24… no longer uses radio… But they use Pandora, and they use it a lot,” he writes. “Once these businesses realize the awareness of Pandora and where the younger market is, they should jump on this opportunity.”
(source: RAIN Newsletter 2/2)

Alarming stuff for radio particularly, but wait! There’s more. Keen to see the analysis data behind this sweeping statement, a quick click on the [Read more on the GLG site here.] revealed the key detail under an “Analysis” header with a company disclaimer “Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG” and includes:

“… Quick story--I'm a college professor in the media area. I'm teaching a management course this term, and recently I asked my class how many had heard of HD radio. One student raised their hand out of 24. When I asked how many had heard of Pandora, all but two students raised their hand. The demographic is roughly 20-24. This group no longer uses radio unless they are in a car with no alternatives. But they use Pandora, and they use it a lot.”

Beyond sensing some serious advertorial dialogue at play here for PANDORA’s latest revenue strategy, it’s not the kind of “quantitative” or “qualitative” information one expects from such an unquestionably future-focussed sheet as RAIN.
Foregoing this stumble, it does prompt a closer look at the substantial research that is actually out there not only in relation to this five year age cohort supposedly “no longer using radio”, but the real listening habits and new usage trends emerging in radio’s key demographics from recognized research data; and more importantly the opportunities at play for radio with platform plurality.
The all powerful 18-34yr demo continues of course to drive, and be squarely at the core center of radio’s HIT, CHR, RHYTHMIC and ROCK brands and their format variants as ARBITRON PPM, DIARY, and other measurement data consistently shows. That key demographics are also now spreading their time across on-line, on-cell, and social networking, as well as the analog radio world, is a new reality we all acknowledge. And so to just a couple of brief and hopefully thought and action provoking points of note from recent research sources and activity around the world that counter this “GENERATION LOST” assertion:

(Source: Bridge Ratings U.S.)
During the months of December 2009 and January 2010, Bridge Ratings conducted interviews with over 3000 Internet radio listeners to determine their current and intended Internet radio listening preferences.
Highlights of the study are:
• Just over 60 million Americans listen to some form of Internet radio in a typical week. This includes both AM/FM simulcast streams and Internet-only radio (e.g. Pandora, AccuRadio).
• 84% of this group regularly listens for at least five minutes to AM/FM simulcast streams in a typical week.
• 62% of the total streaming group regularly listens for at least five minutes listening to Internet-only streams.
• 77 million Americans will listen to Internet radio streams (on both computers and mobile devices) by January 1, 2015.
• Based on interviews which measured satisfaction and fatigue levels, we are projecting that by that date the percentage listening to AM/FM simulcast streams will fall to 81% while those listening to Internet-only radio streams will increase to 72%.
• The percentage of streaming listeners for AM/FM simulcasts and Internet-only will reach parity by the end of 2016 (77%).

"One recommendation for traditional radio coming from this study is to develop alternate streams and on-demand streams that offer content different from their simulcast versions," suggests Van Dyke. "This is an idea that isn't new, but few traditional stations take advantage of this opportunity or are not approaching development of these alternative channels in the right way. Their brand power is an advantage they have over their Internet-only brethren and alternative streams can off-set future attrition if programmed and promoted effectively."

With acknowledgement to:
Dave Van Dyke at Bridge Ratings at dvd@bridgeratings.com

(Source: RAJAR UK Oct.2009)
• The fifth survey of the internet radio audience conducted by RAJAR has revealed that one third of the UK’s adult population has listened to radio online.
• The survey, based on almost a thousand respondents, reveals that 17.4 million people claim to listen online, that’s up from 16.9 million in May this year.
• The Listen Again facilities such as the BBC’s iPlayer have also proved popular with over 13 million people tuning in to shows at a later date. Awareness of new technology such as WiFi radio was also up with over eight million having heard of the sets, though less than one million people had actually reached into their pockets to purchase one.
• Podcasting listening is also on the increase with just over eight million downloading shows, though the caveat being that only a quarter of people asked admitted to finding time to listen to the podcasts they’d downloaded. On the upside, a third of participants stated that podcasts had pushed them towards radio shows they’d never previously listened to.
• 20 years ago, radio was listened to through just one device – the transistor. Today one can listen through analogue radios, DAB radios, the Internet and through DTV providers. Currently (Q3 2009), 21.1% of all radio listening is now via a digital platform, of which 13.3% is via DAB, 3.6% is via DTV and 2.2% is via the Internet

(Triple J National Youth Network Australia/RELEASE: Tuesday, 26 January 2010)
• Breaking records across the board, this year’s Hottest 100 is by far our biggest ever - confirming triple j’s Hottest 100 really is the world’s biggest music democracy.
• An incredible 131,000 voters (up 30% from 2008) registered 1.1million votes (up 46%) in triple j’s annual poll to find the hottest songs of the year. Add to that 4,100 parties held by listeners across Australia and internationally has made this year’s Hottest 100 countdown a massive success.
• triple j’s manager Chris Scaddan said of the Hottest 100 “this year has undoubtedly been our biggest hottest 100; it’s a live party all around Australia, millions of listeners on the radio and it pretty much takes over Facebook and Twitter for the day – the Hottest 100 countdown has become synonymous with Australia Day and it’s arguably the biggest radio event of the year - one that only triple j can deliver”.

The point of course, is not in the reams of data out there, but the simple fact that commercial broadcasters just like their “new media” counterparts, are re-tooling, re-shaping, re-defining, and re-investing in initiatives, people, training, and platforms that are the future of business going forward. Demographics will only “go away” from any platform if it fails to give opportunity to engage and participate with relevance and value in a meaningful way; whether traditional radio or other. The capability is out there including mobile apps, social and loyalty programs on-line, and the new generation of “crowd-casting” and “listener driven” software, of which our own LDR- Listener Driven Radio is a pioneer.
For radio, there remains a distinct advantage among emerging players and platforms. Radio broadcasters enter today’s “media-cast” environment with an already strong converted audience of loyal and involved fans, far from “lost”, and ready for more fresh engagement with their favorite brands.